Avalanche Forecast

Strong alpine winds and moderate snow will accompany a cold front across the Northwest Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning. This should bring .5-1.5 feet of new snow east of the crest with the most expected in the northeast zone. A slight warming trend should be seen east of the crest.

Watch for new storm and wind slab on Sunday. Human triggered storm slab should be likely on varied aspects. Human triggered wind slab should be likely on lee north to east slopes especially above treeline.

Beware of potentially dangerous persistent slab this weekend! Persistent slabs may be human triggered where persistent weak layers were buried intact. Stay on low angled slopes and watch and listen for obvious clues like shooting cracks and whumpfing and use caution until more information is obtained about PWLs spatial variability and likelihood to trigger throughout the east slopes

A short minor break between weather systems should be seen Sunday afternoon. This may slightly decrease the avalanche danger.

The next strong system should begin to move into the Olympics and Cascades Sunday night. But be prepared to curtail your plans later Sunday if conditions deteriorate sooner than expected.

Early season hazards exist for much of the below treeline band throughout the Northwest, so ski and ride with caution.

The north central and northeast Cascade zones have been privy to the deepest snowdepths found throughout the Cascades this season thanks to cold air pooling on the east side in otherwise warm storms for the west slopes. Snowdepths are generally between 1 to 2 meters near the crest. Long stretches of cold weather under high pressure has lead to near surface faceting and surface hoar formation around the end of November.  At the end of November, professionals in the Washington Pass area reported faceting near the surface crust, and overall a general variety of snow surfaces.  

Roughly 15-20 inches of new snow fell at the NWAC Washington Pass, Holden Village Co-op site and Lyman Lake Snotel stations over the last few days. Unlike in the Stevens Pass area, this new load may have adequately tested PWLs on the east-side of the Cascades and led to a natural avalanche cycle. Pro-observer Jeff Ward was surprised by the lack of activity on the potential PWL layer at Washington Pass on Friday and considered the conditions uncertain.

Further away from the crest for areas like Mission Ridge and for the southeast Cascades, less avalanche problems are likely as well as less snow. Mission Ridge pro-patrol reported no control work and no PWLs in their area near and above treeline due to warmer and windy recent weather.  

We still have many gaps in our observation network as it's early season, so make your own observations and use them in co-junction to our regional avalanche forecast. Thanks for reading the first NWAC avalanche forecast for 2015-16 season, stay safe and have fun!