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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2016–Feb 2nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The new snow is gaining strength however strong ridge top winds have loaded lee features in the alpine.

Weather Forecast

Cooling trend continues with light west winds, alpine temps to -9C and mainly cloudy skies. Expect this pattern to continue with isolated flurries forecast, cloudy skies and ridgetop highs in the -10- -15 range.

Snowpack Summary

Last week's storm produced 50cm of storm snow which is now settling and gaining strength. Soft wind slabs should be expected on lee features after mod-strong S-SW winds on the weekend.  Jan 4th interface down 60-100cm and is still producing sporadic whumfing and possible to trigger especially in less traveled areas or where snowpack is thin.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has tapered off with the cooling temps, however with clear breaks yesterday evidence of many large recent avalanches were observed.  WIth lots of available snow to transport any increase in winds could create a more cohesive slab.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.