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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2014–Dec 10th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Glacier.

Rapid warming and precipitation are leading to an increasing avalanche hazard.  Be cautious crossing run out zones and limit exposure to overhead hazards.

Weather Forecast

Today a rapid warming trend with above freezing temperatures and rain mixed with snow are forecast for all elevations.  Tomorrow the warming trend is expected to continue with large amounts of rain and snow with moderate to strong winds. 

Snowpack Summary

5cm of snow over night adding to the15-20cm of recent storm snow is over the Dec 5 surface hoar/facet layer and sun crust on steep solar aspects. The storm snow resides over a breakable crust below 1600m. The Nov 21 and Nov 9 persistent weak layers are now buried down ~105 and ~140cm.  It is already above freezing at tree line.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were recorded in the last 24hrs.  Rising temperatures and heavy forecast precipitation will result in a rapidly rising avalanche hazard.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.