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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2015–Mar 19th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Human triggered avalanches continue to occur. Be diligent in your terrain selection and pay attention to the clues of instability. Whumphing is a good indication that weak layers are reactive in your area. 

Weather Forecast

Today expect mostly sunny skies. Gusty winds will keep alpine temps cool, but sun and above freezing temps below treeline may weaken the surface. By tomorrow expect cloudy skies with flurries starting in the afternoon. Freezing levels will be ~1800m, with up to 10cm of new snow and moderate SW winds. By Friday freezing levels will rise to 2100m.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline and above, pockets of wind slab formed by strong to extreme winds from last Saturday night overlie a combination of crusts, faceted snow and old windslabs. The Feb19th surface hoar down 30-45cm has variable distribution. Below 1800m a melt freeze cycle, following recent rain, is starting to form a supportive melt freeze crust.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday skiers triggered a slab avalanche on Youngs Peak. It was on a NW aspect, ~2400m, was reported to be 15-60cm deep, 30m wide and 100m long. In the region, windslabs have been triggered by riders daily causing avalanches to size 2. Whumphing continues to be reported from treeline areas throughout the park.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.