Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Dec 14 – 15, 2011Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Old windslabs still lurk in lee locations at ridgecrest in the alpine. Be aware of the new snow hiding these old slabs or forming into new soft slabs with the moderate winds.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–5
    Low probability/high consequence situation due to the highly variable snow depths. There is a chance of triggering a deeper instability from a shallow area like around rocks, clumps of small trees or convexities.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    The new snow sluffs easily. Minimal hazard at this time, but something to keep in the back of your mind as the load increases. For more info about incremental loading, check out the forecaster blog.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Expect the clouds to dissipate through the day, with a chance of flurries tapering into the evening. Winds should be light northwesterlies with temperatures reaching -9. Friday & Saturday: Clouds rebuild bringing intermittent flurries giving as much as 10cm each day. Winds in front of this disturbance will turn westerly and be strong. Expect daytime highs of -5.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow has fallen since the 10th of December. This overlies surface hoar, surface facets, old windslabs and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). Winds have been sporadic in this period, with some strong northerlies intermingled with the more dominant light to moderate westerlies. There are isolated new soft slabs in immediate lee locations and some surface sluffing in more protected areas where the surface hoar is more prominent. Moving forward, the avalanche danger will increase as the load increases (either by new snow or wind). Be locally aware of changes and if obvious signs of instability are present (cracking, whumphing, recent activity on adjacent slopes) or rapid loading is taking place (heavy snowfall or strong winds) then scale down your terrain choices accordingly.Deeper in the snowpack there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m and some faceting (weakening) has been observed around the crust. Deeper still, the early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche.

Regions covered