An unsettled forecast could bring intense periods of sun and intense periods of rain, both of which will increase danger.
Weather Forecast
Expect increasing cloud this afternoon. Moderate precip, with freezing levels of 1800m, will bring 5cm to the alpine and up to 7mm of rain at lower elevations are forecast. Alpine temps might reach 1'C. Friday looks like there will be a mix of sun and cloud, with alpine temps of 3'C and freezing levels of 2100m. Sat another wet storm arrives.
Snowpack Summary
Over the last 48hrs, 15cm of snow fell above 1900m. This snow insulated wet, rain saturated snow preventing it from freezing. At lower elevations, a weak freeze will break down quickly. Several crusts in the top meter of the snowpack provide potential failure layers and sliding surfaces for avalanches. SW winds yesterday formed new windslabs.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday, warm temps and light rain triggered 12 wet avalanches up to size 2.5 in the highway corridor. Yesterday, cooler temps helped to tighten the snowpack and there were no new avalanches.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.