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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2015–Feb 14th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Wet Avalanches are likely with warm temperatures and freezing levels up to 2500m.

Weather Forecast

Unseasonably warm temperatures will spike today as freezing levels climb to 2500m. Mainly cloudy with possible periods of sun at higher elevations. A cold front is set to arrive late this evening bringing a return to freezing temps and up to 12cm of snow. A high pressure ridge building on Sunday marks the return to cold temperatures and sunshine.

Snowpack Summary

Moist surface snow is expected to 2500m today as freezing levels climb. 1m of settled storm snow over the Jan 30 layer. This layer formed a crust to 2200m with spotty surface hoar distribution. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down 100-150cm and continues to be reactive in tests. Isothermal snow at lower elevations makes for challenging skiing.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 wet slab avalanche was observed on Cheops South in the highway corridor below treeline. Below treeline, wet snow is capable of running on a buried crust.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.