Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

Today, near and above treeline,the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY and THEY'LL BE DEEP AND DANGEROUS, especially in the wind zone on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, and particularly in terrain with an easterly component to its aspect. Once triggered, today's avalanches will break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack

All other terrain below treeline offers MODERATE avalanche danger. Remember- many of these areas have a slab of snow resting on weak facets. And while the odds of triggering a slide have decreased somewhat, human triggered avalanches remain possible.

Here's your exit strategy-

Riding conditions are excellent on low elevation slopes, especially those facing the south half of the compass where LOW avalanche danger is found. Take advantage of the gentle, rolling terrain that isn't steep enough to produce avalanches, but make sure to avoid being on or under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    The snowpack is complex and many traditional snow stabilities tests offer green light conditions, especially if we dig or test in deep portions of the snowpack where the pack is strong. But where the rubber hits the road is the biggest clue to avalanches is... and that's avalanches!

    The good news is... the Uinta snowpack has gotten a lot deeper after last week's series of storms. The bad news is... recent storm snow is consolidating, strengthening, and morphing into a slab. It's a double edge sword because this stronger snow feels solid under our skis, board, or sled but it in many places the slab rests on a facet/crust combo about 30 cm above the ground surface. All the avalanches I've looked at the past few days reveal failure at this layer and once triggered, avalanches are breaking deep and wide. So what this means is we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on. Now here's where it gets tricky... in terrain where the slab is thickest, avalanches are harder to trigger because it's more difficult to effect our suspect weak layers. However, thin spots, like around rocks or bushes, are often good trigger points and all we need to do is collapse the slope, initiate the slide, and now the entire seasons snowpack is crashing down on us. Mark was in Lakes Country Sunday and has a great observation along with some advice on how to travel safely given these conditions posted HERE.

    The photo below shows weak snow near the ground, and how a snowmobile can stay on top of the snowpack. However, there are a lot of different ways for a sled or a skier to impact the weak layer. Because the snowpack is not the same depth across a slope, it's easy to hit a thin spot and trigger an avalanche. Tracks on a slope DO NOT mean it is safe or stable.

    Ted was in the Millcreek zone on the east side of the range and reports a shallow snowpack with a slab on top... always a bad combo which could lead to more deceptively tricky avalanche conditions.

    His great ob is found HERE.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Yesterday's winds, blowing right to left in the image above, illustrate cross-loading around chutes and gully features.

    Winds have been all over the compass the past 24 hours.... blowing from the southwest, west, and for a brief time, northwest. And there's no shortage of low density snow to blow around and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, strong winds have deposited snow lower down-slope than we usually expect to see. In addition, fresh drifts also formed around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and sub-ridges. In any case, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it feels hollow like a drum. And remember- wind slabs add additional stress to buried persistent weak layers keeping them on edge, ready to fracture and produce an avalanche.

Additional Info

We will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Thursday, February 24th.

Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program

Recent Activity

Two, very large, well-connected avalanches reported in the past two days. Top image from Upper Weber Canyon, is an intentionally triggered slide with explosives, while the bottom image on Mt. Marsell was most likely cornice triggered. In either case, both avalanches broke to the dirt and illustrate the connectivity and meatiness of the slab.

More obs, trip reports, and avalanches found here.

Snow and Weather

Nowcast-

Clear skies with a little help from a big, bright, beautiful moon light up the mountains this morning, providing a stunning backdrop to kickoff your day. Overnight, west and southwest winds have been busy at work, blowing in the 30's and 40's along the high peaks. Current temperatures register in the single digits and low teens. Riding and turning conditions have taken a hit as recent winds had their way with our snow surface. But the Uinta's are white with total settled snow depths averaging right around 5' and there's plenty of room to roam.

Forecast-

Clouds increase late this morning and we may see a stray snow shower or two as another moisture starved system clips the region. Westerly winds should relax somewhat and become more reasonable around midday. High temperatures creep into the low 20's and overnight lows dip into the single digits.

Futurecast-

Clear and cold for Thursday, another quick hitter slated for Friday, with a stronger system slated for Saturday.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?

Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.

General Announcements

If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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