Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches are unlikely and most slopes are safe. Isolated areas of unstable snow may exist on very steep slopes, particularly at elevations above 9,000'. Be on the lookout for areas where stiff, wind-drifts overlie weak, sugary snow near the ground. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The last significant, reported avalanche in this zone occurred on February 6th when ski patrollers at Bald Mountain intentionally triggered an avalanche during mitigation work before opening the ski area. The slide failed on a wind-loaded slope that sees little ski traffic and harbored weak, sugary, faceted snow in the lower part of the snowpack.

    This exact snowpack scenario—hard, wind-drifted snow overlying weak, faceted snow—is where you're most likely to find unstable conditions today. These slabs often form downwind of prominent terrain features and can sound "drummy" or feel hollow beneath your skis or sled. While triggering a slab avalanche is unlikely, I'd still pay attention in very steep, recently wind-loaded terrain, especially at elevations over about 9000'.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a week since the end of the last storm—in our southern mountains, it's been even longer. During this mid-winter dry spell, we've experienced the full gamut of weather: wind, cold temps, warm temps, sun, clouds, more wind—you name it. This has left us with a snow surface that's equally variable. In wind-sheltered terrain, you're likely to find that the snow surface has turned to "recycled powder", also known as near-surface facets. On sunny slopes, a crust exists that may have facets above and/or below it. On Wednesday, Ethan found an ugly and relatively widespread crust and facet combination at middle elevations in the Soldiers (video). Once you get into wind-exposed terrain, all bets are off and you're likely to find anything and everything—wind-hardened surfaces, stiff drifts, sun crusts, and near-surface facets. A good rule of thumb is this: the slopes where you've been finding the best riding conditions are usually the weakest snow surfaces.

While the storm arriving this afternoon is looking less impressive than it once was, we still stand to bury these surfaces throughout much of the forecast area. In our northern and western mountains, we may see enough snowfall—combined with wind—to create a slab atop these new weak layers. Tomorrow, our job will be to see how the old snow surface responds to the new load. As Scotty said on Wednesday, "Today's canvas is tomorrow's problem". But for the canvas to become a problem, we need a painter—snow and wind. Will this painter be a Michaelangelo or a rank amateur? We'll know more by tomorrow morning, but I say bring it on! 

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