Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

From what we've seen the snow pack has recovered well from last weeks storms. There is a lot we haven't yet seen.

Always plan your adventures to optimise the safer terrain options and minimalise time spent in or under more hazardous slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Wind slab danger is possible on all aspects above 1500 m. The initial northwesterly storm deposited over 1.5 m of new snow near the Divide, creating deep wind-loaded deposits on east- to south-facing aspects.

    From Sunday afternoon, winds shifted to the southeast and have continued strengthening through Monday, redistributing the new snow and forming fresh wind slabs on west- to north-facing aspects. This has continued overnight Monday and into early Tuesday/Wednesday.

    It does appear to be settling out well with time from the storm.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The sun is back! Great! But part of the settling influence of warmer temperatures and sunshine, is a period of localised "shedding".

    Steep terrain affected by the sun in the heat of the day are the prime players. Time your travel to avoid being there (or under such) in the warm periods of the day. Most of what will run has already, but good planning is good planning.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Some evidence of old wind slab from early in the week and more recent let loose. Nothin seen in the southern Ben Ohaus or Gammacks that would indicate very recent activity.

Please let us know via the Public Observations link if you see anything of note.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Over 1.5 m of new snow likely fell near the Main Divide between 4–5 July, accompanied by strong northwesterly winds. The freezing level was initially around 2300 m before lowering to approximately 1800 m. Deep wind-loaded deposits are likely in sheltered terrain on east- to south-facing aspects.

From Sunday afternoon, winds shifted to a cold southeasterly. A further 20–30 cm of new snow has probably fallen across eastern regions with more to come, down to about 600m. This shift in wind direction creates a situation with slab possible on basically all aspects. Just a few cm on Tuesday, and again another 10-15cm on Wednesday.

The snow pack in the Gammack range at circa 1800-2000m had a surface rime crust (in some places a second 5cm down, but not everywhere. followed by 50-60cm of decomposing fragments (recent snow) at 1 finger density laying on a strong and supportive melt-freeze crust. No snow structure tests produced results.

Mountain Weather

Fine, then some cloud developing late evening. Light winds and a freezing level lowering from 2000m to 1600m.

Sliding Danger

At snowline elevations and up to around 1800m, or where the wind has stripped slopes, expect a very firm icy layer.Ice axe and crampons are essential for travel above the snowline, especially in areas where the rain crust is exposed or only thinly covered by snow.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered