Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Previous winds have left wind slabs in their wake. These shallow slabs remain possible to human trigger on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Other types of avalanche problems have become unlikely to trigger and are more isolated in the terrain. If you push onto steep aggressive slopes, remember even a small avalanche can grow in size or push you into more hazardous terrain. Yesterday, riders triggered a small, 7-inch deep avalanche, but it ran for nearly 1,200ft as it poured over cliffs and continued to grow in size running through steep terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Tuesday Night into Wednesday, southwesterly winds were gusting into the 80's at 12,000ft, and averaging 10-20mph at 11,000ft. These winds combined with about 4 to 7" of fresh snow to form wind slabs on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Most of these slabs are expected to be small in size, while larger slabs may have developed at upper elevations, primarily along the crest of the Ruby Range.

    Example of a shallow wind slab from the archives.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Hard slabs that break 2 to 6 feet deep on weak layers near the ground remain a low likelihood concern.  The problem has become increasingly stubborn and isolated, and it has been several weeks since we have observed a persistent slab avalanche.  There is lingering uncertainty that skiers or riders can trigger a large avalanche from the margins of the slab where it thins out,  especially at higher elevations.   Cornice falls can also trigger large avalanches.  You can reduce your risk by traveling where the snowpack is deeper and more uniform.  Regroup in safe zones that are clear of unusually wide and long-running avalanches.  

    An example of a thick, hard persistent slab that released naturally in mid-February.

Avalanche Discussion

We are now arriving at the calm before the storm. Little change in the conditions is expected today and Friday. With the arrival of the weekend, the avalanche danger is expected to be on the rise as a large storm moves over the area. 

If you chose to travel in avalanche terrain today, your primary avalanche problems are all related to new snow. Managing the terrain for wind slabs should be the highest on your list. Keep an eye out for pillowy-looking snow surfaces, and use your hands to keep track of the depth of the new snow. These slabs will start becoming somewhat stiff today, and may not show many signs of instability. Outside of wind-loaded terrain, slab avalanche issues are isolated in the terrain. On slope angles over 35 degrees, and extreme terrain, you could trigger loose snow avalanches and isolated slabs. 

The recent new snow is starting to burry a few persistent weak layers, primarily on northerly and easterly facing slopes. There isn't enough new snow to create a new avalanche problem on this interface yet, but this triggered avalanche suggests, the remote possibility of finding just the right slope is out there. As more snow accumulates this weekend, slab avalanches releasing on persistent weak layers may start taking over the headlines of the avalanche bulletin again. 

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