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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2017–Jan 13th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Wind slabs may be reactive to rider triggering. The safest, best riding may be in lower elevation terrain sheltered from the wind.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

The dominating arctic ridge is slowly breaking down as we transition to a more zonal (westerly) flow. Cloudy with some sunny periods, westerly winds and slightly warmer alpine temperatures will persist through the weekend. A more significant change to come early next week.Friday/ Saturday/ Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with mostly cloudy skies on Saturday. Ridgetop winds will be light gusting moderate from the SW-W and alpine temperatures near -13.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a natural size 2 slab avalanche was reported from an ENE aspect near 2500m and likely triggered by wind. Several size 1 skier triggered avalanches were also noted from easterly aspects near 2200m. With winds switching directions, recently formed wind slabs may still be reactive to human triggering on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent snow has buried variable old snow surfaces. These surfaces consist of wind scoured or old wind slabs in exposed terrain, surface hoar in sheltered terrain, and/or widespread faceted (sugary) old snow. Recent moderate winds from a variety of directions is expected to have redistributed some of this new snow on leeward terrain. The layer of facets from mid-December is still reactive to snowpack tests in isolated areas but is generally considered to be dormant during this period of cold, dry conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.