An unsettled weather pattern exists through the forecast period. Expect new snow (if any) to form isolated storm slabs in the alpine and loose wet avalanches at lower elevations with daytime warming and periods of sunshine.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
The region will see a fairly unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period. Convective spring-like conditions could bring pulses of new snow in some areas or none in others. TUESDAY NIGHT: Light snow amounts 3-10 cm at upper elevations and freezing levels 1300 m. Ridgetop winds light from the NE.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods and light snow 3-8 cm. Alpine temperatures near 3 degrees and freezing levels 1900 m. Ridgetop winds 10-30 km/h from the southwest.THURSDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods and a trace of snow. Alpine temperatures near 0 degrees and freezing levels 1300 m. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near 3 degrees and freezing levels rising to 2100 m. Ridgetop winds light with strong SW gusts.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday no new avalanches were reported. On Monday there was a natural loose wet avalanche cycle to size 1.5 on solar aspects as the new snow ran on the crust. Snowfall amounts are uncertain for the next 24 hours. Storm slabs may only be an avalanche problem with new snow and loading.With spring conditions, the avalanche hazard will fluctuate greatly depending on the strength of the overnight re-freeze and how quickly the snowpack is warmed up.
Snowpack Summary
Sunday night the region picked up 10 cm of moist snow which has turned to shmoo from daily warming. This snow rests on a supportive crust above about 1400 m. Below 1400 m the snowpack is becoming isothermal. During the heat of the day, especially under direct sun, the snow surface becomes moist or wet almost everywhere. The exception being high elevation north facing features. Steep, north facing, alpine terrain may still hold a cold, dry, snowpack where a well settled slab rests on weak facets (sugary snow). Although unlikely, human triggering of persistent slabs on this layer may still be possible, especially in rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or highly variable depth snowpack.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.