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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2016–Jan 11th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

New small shallow storm and wind slab seems possible by the end of the day on Monday at Hurricane. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Monday. Adjust your plans if winds are stronger or new snowfall is heavier than expected.

Detailed Forecast

A front should weaken as it moves over the Northwest on Monday. Over the Olympics this should bring moderately increasing southwest alpine winds and mostly light occasional moderate rain or snow Monday morning changing to showers Monday afternoon with lowering snow levels.

Wet surface snow from Sunday should refreeze on Monday. 

New small areas of shallow storm slab seem possible mainly above treeline near Hurricane. The limited amounts of new snow and the cooling trend should limit the extent and depth of new storm slab by the end of the day.

New small areas of shallow wind slab also seem possible mainly on lee slopes at Hurricane by the end of the day. The limited amounts of new snow and the cooling trend should also limit the extent and depth of new wind slab.

 

Snowpack Discussion

Deep storm snow from late December should be settled and stabilized at Hurricane. About 6 inches of snowfall was seen at Hurricane last week.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane on Friday and generally found a right side up stable snowpack. Older wind slab was limited to 15-30 cm pockets near ridges and tests indicated little propagation.

New surface hoar was seen primarily on sheltered north to east slopes which will need to be watched in case it is buried by future snowfall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.