Avalanche Forecast

Another front should arrive later Friday, bringing additional moderate snowfall at lower snow levels. Winds should be strong, especially above treeline. The main concern Friday will be newly forming wind slab on lee exposed slopes, especially NW-N-SE facing near and above treeline. 

With cooling temperatures, the new snow should have a favorable profile, but may mask older unstable storm slabs.

Weather/Snowpack

Two fair weather periods earlier this month allowed surface hoar and near surface faceting to occur. These persistent weak layers were buried intact on January 3rd and 11th.

A warm front last Thursday caused heavy rain on the Washington volcanoes. Heavy snow changed to lighter freezing rain and rain in the passes. This caused an avalanche cycle and consolidation along the west slopes.

This was followed by cooler weather and some snow. NWAC stations along the west slopes indicate about 3-6 inches for the 2 days ending Sunday morning.

Mild weather, freezing levels approaching 8000 feet and rain in the Mt Baker area caused increasing wet snow conditions. Heavy rain Thursday changed to snow adding additional load.

Snow levels dropped through the day Thursday as temperatures lowered some 10 degrees or more through the day. This has changed rain to snow gradually, likely allowing a favorable bond to form between new snow and the old wet snow surface.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was near the Mt Baker Ski Area on Sunday and found that the rain late last week had percolated to at least 1 meter. He did not find signs of the January 3rd or 11th persistent layers and did not get significant stability test results. He noted glide cracks on some slopes.

NWAC pro-observer Ian Nicholson was at Skyline Ridge at Stevens Pass on Sunday and at 5000 feet, he found that the upper snowpack crystals were rounding and stabilizing. He found the January 3rd and 11th layers at 85 and 115 cm are surviving, but slowly breaking down and were not reactive.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Sunday and saw evidence of wind transport and solar effects which were limited by clouds in the afternoon.

A private report and a report via the NWAC Observations page indicate a loose wet avalanche cycle occurred in the Alpental Valley on Sunday. Another report via the NWAC Observations page noted loose wet activity at Stevens on Monday.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was out again in the Alpental Valley Monday. He reports large roller balls and more loose-wet and some wet slab avalanches on W, solar and E aspects. He also noted buckling snow and widening glide cracks, but without releases. He identified the January 3rd and 11th layers on a north slope at 4700 feet, but the layers did not indicate reactive test results.

Large glide or climax avalanches continue to be a concern, especially with unsupported terrain features, such as large rock faces. One such release occurred Wednesday afternoon, Jan. 27th, in the Stevens Pass area, a size 2.5 climax slide released from an unsupported rock face at about 5600 feet on a NE aspect. Fortunately, the terrain was closed and no one was on the slope below. 

With the heavy rain falling Thursday, no new observations were reported.