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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2016–Feb 15th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

The wet surface layers should drain quickly Monday and strong winds should also help to firm the surface snow, all limiting the likelihood of wet snow avalanches Monday. Watch for wind transported snow at the highest elevations.

Detailed Forecast

Moderate to heavy rain and snow is expected with strong winds and moderately high freezing levels overnight Sunday. The heavy precipitation will shift north of Mt Hood Monday, though freezing levels will remain high. 

Many steep slopes may have released naturally by Monday due to warming and rain, locally lowering the danger on those slopes, however on slopes that have not released, natural or triggered avalanches should remain possible Monday.   

Wind slabs may have built at the upper elevation zones of the forecast on lee slopes below ridges, mainly N-SE facing.

Loose-wet avalanches will be a concern on steeper slopes at lower elevations. Watch for wet snow that gets deeper than a few inches.

The wet surface layers should drain quickly Monday and strong winds should also help to firm the surface snow, all limiting the likelihood of wet snow avalanches Monday.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

The warmest weather of the winter occurred this past Sunday through Wednesday with extended temperatures climbing into the 50's, with some excursions into the 60's!  A warm front brought periods of rain to the Mt Hood area Thursday night through mid-day Friday, with snow levels falling to 5500 ft after the frontal passage Friday afternoon. Further cool showers Saturday  and Saturday night combined to deposit storm snow amounts ranging from about 6-12 inches as of Sunday morning.

Warming changed snow to rain to high elevations Sunday. Heavy rain Sunday and Sunday afternoon caused wet snow conditions by Sunday afternoon.   

 

Recent Observations

Limited loose wet avalanches were reported Sunday on Mt Hood by the pro-patrol. The recent warm weather has allowed the rain Sunday to drain well from surface layers, helping limit the likelihood of wet snow avalanches. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.