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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2017–Jan 15th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Watch for loose, wet snow on slopes facing the sun. Some wind slabs may still be lurking on a wide range of aspects at alpine elevations near ridge crest.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

We're in a warming trend with no snow and some sunshine Sunday. On Monday-Tuesday the floodgates open... stay tuned for more details. SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and no new snow.  Winds light - moderate westerly. Alpine temperatures range from 0 to +3 ; freezing level 1100m, rising sharply at the end of the day. MONDAY: Mix of snow and rain, starting in the morning. Winds light gusting to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level 2200m and alpine temperatures to +1 Celcius. TUESDAY: Rain. Winds moderate to strong from the south. Freezing level 2000m and alpine high temperatures to +4 Celcius!

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

We've had some sunshine and warm temperatures (as high as +6 on Grouse mountain) at higher elevations on Saturday. Expect to find a lovely sun crust on solar (south) aspects. Earlier in the week, pockets of wind slab formed on exposed aspects at higher elevations. A thick crust can be found 5-10cm below the surface at treeline and below, and has limited the wind redistribution at lower elevations. The new wind slabs have already gained considerable strength but could remain reactive on steeper unsupported terrain at alpine elevations where this crust does not exist. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.