Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Feb 13 – 14, 2019Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A good refresh out there, but watch for loose dry avalanches in the Alpine. These are running far and could be hazardous in the wrong terrain feature.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Wind slabs are widespread in the Alpine on all aspects. There is high amounts of variability in the sensitivity of these slabs.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Recent snow is contributing to a loose dry problem in steep terrain in the Alpine. These slides are running far down slope due to the stiffness of the layers below.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–3
    Thin areas should are where you could wake up the basal layers. Large and steep Alpine features are still a concern.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Thursday should be mostly clear with light winds and temperatures climbing to near -9  by early afternoon. Friday and Saturday should be snowy with as much as 20cm on the way, but stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the expected precipitation event.

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered loose dry avalanches occurred overnight with the new snowfall. These slides were found mostly in steep Alpine terrain on N and E aspects, ranging in size from 1.0 to 2.0 and notably running quite far down slope.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow fell overnight, which is being re-distributed at upper elevations by light to moderate SW winds. Previously formed wind slabs are widespread on all aspects in the Alpine. These vary from being potentially reactive to skier traffic, to being completely "welded" in place. In other words, there is lots of variability out there. With the prolonged cold period the snowpack is facetting and loosing strength. However, in many areas, particularly deeper snowpack zones, the midpack is very dense and is providing lots of bridging strength over the weak basal facets. Though a full-depth avalanche is unlikely, if it does occur it will be catastrophic. Large triggers, such as a cornice failure, or triggering from a shallow snowpack area, are possible ways to wake up the deep persistent weak layer.

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