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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2024–Jan 26th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Rain and snow continue; anticipate loose wet avalanche activity at lower elevations and freshly formed storm slabs at higher elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There are no recent reports of avalanche activity, however, we suspect a natural avalanche cycle is ongoing with warm, and wet conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Rain or wet snow has saturated the upper snowpack at lower elevations. At higher elevations recent snow has buried a variable melt-freeze crust.

In the mid-snowpack, a reactive crust/facet combination may exist in high alpine terrain.

Otherwise, the mid and lower snowpack contains a series of old crusts and is currently well-bonded and strong.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with 2 to 10 mm of rain at treeline and below with snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 30 to 40 km/h, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain at treeline and below with snow at higher elevations, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, freezing levels around 2400 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 20 to 50 mm of rain, south alpine winds 90 to 100 km/h, freezing levels around 2800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.