Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 26 – 27, 2024Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Rain and snow continue; anticipate loose wet avalanche activity at lower elevations and freshly formed storm slabs at higher elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A layer of facets over a crust is buried down 50 to 100 cm and may still be rider-triggerable on alpine slopes with inconsistent, thin-to-thick snowpack depth.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm and wind slab formation continue at higher elevations where precipitation has fallen as snow.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rain at lower elevations continues to saturate the upper snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There are no recent reports of avalanche activity, however, we suspect a natural avalanche cycle is ongoing with warm, and wet conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Rain or wet snow has saturated the upper snowpack at lower elevations. At higher elevations recent snow has buried a variable melt-freeze crust.

In the mid-snowpack, a reactive crust/facet combination may exist in high alpine terrain.

Otherwise, the mid and lower snowpack contains a series of old crusts and is currently well-bonded and strong.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with 2 to 10 mm of rain at treeline and below with snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 30 to 40 km/h, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain at treeline and below with snow at higher elevations, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, freezing levels around 2400 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 20 to 50 mm of rain, south alpine winds 90 to 100 km/h, freezing levels around 2800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Regions covered