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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2024–Jan 19th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Watch for fresh wind-slabs at ridge top especially on south through west aspects.

Use cautious route-finding and conservative decision making while giving the new snow time to stabilize.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thursday, there was a close call and a skier triggered a size 2 avalanche on a S/SW aspect and was able to self arrest.

Wednesday there was a widespread natural cycle triggered by the wind.

Tuesday, there was a skier triggered avalanche on the steep west aspect of Cheops.

Earlier in the week, there were more reports of skier accidentals on the Jan 3rd crust. *All skier triggered avalanches failed on a suncrust.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong northerly winds have redistributed the recent 10-20cms of storm snow. Beneath this recent storm snow is a layer of harder wind affected snow sitting on a sun crust on solar aspects.

In sheltered areas below treeline this new snow is evenly distributed and sitting on facets.

Below 2100m there is a crust down 70-80cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 90-120cm and is decomposing. However, it is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

A short lived break of high pressure makes way for warming temps & moderate snowfall. Weak high pressure builds on Sunday.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy, Low -14°C, Light SE wind.

Friday: 11cm, High -4°C, Light South wind, Freezing level (Fz Lvl) 1200m

Sat: 6cm, High -1°C, Light SW wind, Fz Lvl 1700m

Sun: Trace precip, High -2°C, Light SW wind, Fz Lvl 1700m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.