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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2023–Jan 24th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Pine Pass.

Avoid avalanche terrain. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in this region.

Stick to heavily tracked riding areas, untouched slopes should be treated as the prime suspect. Consider the slopes above and adjacent to you as remote trigging is a very real concern.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, numerous natural wind slabs (size 2-3) were observed. These slabs initiated as wind slabs but scrubbed down to basal facets, gaining mass and running far.

Looking forward to this week, reactive wind slabs will continue to form but concern for step-down and large natural and human-triggered deep persistent slab avalanches is at the forefront of our minds. A series of incoming storms will be slowly adding load to a shallow, weak snowpack. It is uncertain when the "tipping point" for large destructive avalanches will be reached but this uncertainty demands conservative and low-consequence terrain selection. Check out this video on incremental loading to learn more.

Please continue to send in your observations through the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

A light amount of new snow accompanied by strong northwest winds has affected wind-exposed terrain and redistributed the surface snow into fresh wind slabs in lee areas. Below the new snow, a sun crust may be found on steep solar aspects. Below 1200 m, a rain crust exists down 20- 40 cm.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. Surface hoar or crust layers in the mid-snowpack may exist in this region, but field observations suggest these mid-snowpack weaknesses are less prominent here than in areas further south.

The most concerning layer in this area is at the base of the snowpack. Large, weak facets buried in November are widespread. This layer is most likely to be problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain, where shallower wind slab avalanches can scrub down to these basal facets.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mainly cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm of accumulation. Alpine temperatures around -10 C. Ridge wind northwest 40-80 km/h. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures rise to -5 C. Ridge wind northwest 30-70 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1200 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures around -3 C. Ridge wind northwest 40-80 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1500 m.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures drop to -6 C. Ridge wind northwest 40-80 km/h. Freezing level drops to 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.