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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2024–Jan 7th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, North Monashee.

Be prepared to dial back your terrain choice and look for signs of instability

Conditions vary throughout the region

There is some uncertainty in the reactivity of weak layers in the snowpack

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We have not recieved any reports of avalanches at the time of writing. We suspect that natural avalanche activity occurred during the day on Saturday at treeline and above in drainages that recieved over 30 cm in the past 24 hrs.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of recent snow has formed storm slabs at all elevations. A variety of surfaces are found below this new snow including surface hoar in sheltered terrain and a crust below 1600 m.

Two additional surface hoar layers in the top 1.5 m of the snowpack remain a concern. The deeper of the two likely has a robust crust above it below treeline.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly throughout the region. Weak basal facets characterize the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Clear with cloudy periods, trace amounts of new snow expected, northeast alpine wind 15 to 25 km/h, treeline temperature -13°C.

Sunday

Sunny with no new snow expected, northwest alpine wind 15 to 25 km/h, treeline temperature -13°C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with around 5 cm of new snow expected, west alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature -11°C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of new snow expected, southwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -11°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.