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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2023–Mar 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast, Powell River, Tantalus, North Shore, Sasquatch, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot, Tetrahedron.

Rising freezing levels and the strong March sun can pack a punch and quickly destabilize the snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, natural and skier-triggered dry loose avalanches up to size 1 were reported from the North Shore mountains.

On Monday, natural dry loose avalanches were reported from steep terrain features and explosive control initiated several storm slabs up to size 1. The storm slabs were 5 to 20 cm thick with very limited propagation and entrainment.

On Sunday, a skier-triggered size 2 wind slab was reported as a MIN (check it out here) the skier was knocked off their feet but able to ski out with no injuries. A natural size one wind slab avalanche was reported in the Sky Pilot. This was in the alpine on an east aspect.

Natural and human-triggered avalanche activity will likely occur throughout the week with rising freezing levels and solar radiation.

Snowpack Summary

Surface snow will likely become moist during the day with warming and solar radiation. The recent 40 cm of storm snow is generally settling but may not have a good bond to the underlying sun crust on solar aspects and melt-freeze crust at lower elevations. Southerly winds have also created wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations.

In general, the mid and lower snowpack is well-settled and bonded.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Clear with some cloudy periods. Treeline temperatures near -1. Wind light 15 km/hr and freezing level valley bottom. 3-5 cm of new snow.

Thursday

A mix of sun. Treeline temperatures near +3. Winds southeast 10-20 km/hr. Freezing level 1400 m. l

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures near +3. Wind southeast 10-20 km/hr. Freezing level 1500 m.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud. Winds 10-20 km/hr from the southeast. Treeline temperatures near +4 with freezing levels 1700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.