Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Mar 30 – 31, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A firm, supportive, upper snowpack makes avalanches unlikely. Steep slopes may be suspect if they are in the sun. Bring your crampons and ice axes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Freezing levels have dropped, but mild daytime warming and periods of intense spring sun could make loose wet avalanches possible. 

    The size of these avalanches will be mostly influenced by how deep the loose snow is. 

    • If there is a solid, supportive crust on the surface, avalanches will be unlikely. 
    • If the temperature is above zero, the sun is on a slope, and there is very little wind to keep the surface cool, avalanches will become likely.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Very light snow/rain expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to 900m. 

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny at high elevations, low to mid level cloud. Very light snow/rain expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light to moderate snow/rain expected. Strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to 900 m overnight rising back to 1300 m through the day.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light to moderate snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to 900 m overnight rising back to 1300 m through the day.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday before 4 pm.

On Tuesday, loose wet avalanche activity tapered off as the temperature dropped, and the sun went behind the clouds. 

On Monday, small, loose wet avalanche activity in the top 10 cms was most active on steep slopes in the sun.  

If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions, avalanche observations, or even just funny stories to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network.  

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow may cover a melt freeze crust that exists over moist snow to mountain top. The crust may break down as temperatures rise through the day, and on steep, south facing slopes during sunny periods.

At treeline and above, another, thicker crust 10 cm below the snow surface is limiting loose wet avalanches to the near-surface snow. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Regions covered