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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2022–Mar 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Reactive wind slabs are expected to be the primary concern on Friday. However, if you are finding more than around 25 cm of new storm snow, a more widespread storm slab problem may develop. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday's storm system is forecast to linger through the overnight period. The next storm system is expected to arrive Friday night bringing snowfall through most of Saturday. 

Thursday night: Light snowfall 3-6 cm, light SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Friday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks in the afternoon, light SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1200 m. 

Friday night: Snowfall 10-20 cm, moderate to strong S wind, freezing level around 1200 m. 

Saturday: Snowfall 15-25 cm, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light W wind, freezing level around 800 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, this MIN report described a small human-triggered avalanche failing in the top 10 cm. 

On Tuesday, a ski cut triggered a size 2 storm slab in the Sky Pilot area on a southwest aspect at 1600 m elevation which was 15-30 cm thick. In the North Shore area, ski cutting was triggering small loose wet avalanches. 

On Monday, natural storm slab activity up to size 2 was observed in the Sky Pilot area which was typically 20-30 cm thick. Around the North Shore, size 1 storm slabs were stubborn to trigger with explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Prior to Thursday's storm, 50-80 cm of heavy, moist storm snow which began accumulating last weekend appeared to be bonding well to the underlying hard melt-freeze crust which exists at all elevations and on all aspects except for high elevation north aspects. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below this crust. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.