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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2022–Feb 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Persistent instabilities are still a concern - avoid areas where the snowpack thins and manage large slopes at treeline conservatively. 

Avalanche danger is decreasing, make sure to evaluate conditions as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

A cooling trend lowers freezing levels this week and a weak front brings light snowfall on Monday.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with freezing levels dropping to 500m. Moderate southwest winds. 

MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall delivering 5cm over the day. Strong southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1200m. Alpine high of -2.

TUESDAY: 5-10cm possible snowfall overnight into Tuesday morning. A mix of sun and cloud with light westerly winds. Chance of flurries. Freezing levels reach 1200m. Alpine high of -3. 

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloudy with light westerly winds. Freezing levels reach 1500m, alpine high of -1. 

Avalanche Summary

A large persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Steeples on Saturday afternoon, on a south facing aspect at 2300 m. This avalanche had wide propagation and ran 2 km in length and is believed to have occurred on the late January persistent weak layer, crowns were estimated at 50 cm deep. 

A recent MIN reported a human triggered size 1 persistent slab avalanche on the same layer on a south aspect at treeline. 

Several natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches to size 2 have been reported this week, on north through east facing slopes. 

Snowpack Summary

Exposed terrain at alpine and treeline elevations hold dense wind effected surfaces with large cornices from westerly winds. Sheltered areas and lower elevations hold a widespread melt freeze crust.

The late January interface is buried 15-40cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. 

The widespread January 18 rain crust is now around 40-100cm deep with weak faceted snow above. It is most prominent in the Lizard range. In heavily wind scoured areas at treeline and above this crust may even be found on the surface. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.