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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2022–Mar 12th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Confidence in the weather forecast is shaky.

If we receive more than 15cm of new snow, and/or the winds remain strong into Saturday, the danger rating may reach CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations.

Weather Forecast

A series of systems will bring snow, wind, and warming temps into next week

Tonight: Snow (10cm), Alpine low -8*C, strong SW ridgetop wind

Saturday: Flurries (4cm), High -5*C, moderate SW wind, freezing level (FZL) 1300m

Sun: Flurries (5cm), Low -6*C, High -5*C, moderate SW wind, FZL1500m

Mon: Snow (15cm), Low -6*C, High -4*C, strong SW wind, FZL 1500m

Snowpack Summary

New snow (up to 15cm by Saturday morning), is covering a variety of surfaces - a crust on steep solar aspects up to Treeline (widespread to 1500m), settled pow in shaded/sheltered areas, and wind effect in exposed alpine areas. The Feb 26 interface (small surface hoar or suncrust) lingers down 30-40cm but has not been reactive recently.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, there was a skier triggered size 1 windslab on an alpine NE aspect in the Asulkan.

On Tuesday; there was a near miss in the Loop Brook drainage, when a rider remote triggered a size 2.0 slab at ridge top on a NE slope; a near miss from a cornice fall in MacDonald gully #11; and, a report of isolated wind slabs in the Illecillewaet valley.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.