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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 11th, 2022–Feb 12th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. Where the crust breaks down with afternoon sun and warming, wet loose avalanches may still be possible on steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. A temperature inversion is expected with cooler temperatures in the valleys.

Friday night: Clear, light N wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Saturday: Sunny, light N wind, freezing levels around 3200 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate SW wind, freezing levels dropping to around 2500 m. 

Monday: Light snow overnight and morning, sunny in the afternoon, moderate variable wind, freezing levels around 1000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported recently. Some natural loose wet activity may have occurred on Tuesday during the rain event. If you are out in the mountains, please let us know what you are seeing. 

For the weekend, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of a surface crust. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible on steep, sun-exposed slopes where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon. 

Snowpack Summary

10-30 mm of rain on Tuesday evening soaked the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. A widespread surface crust has now formed at all elevations. This crust may break down on sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon but will likely reform overnight with clear skies. 

Below the surface crust, 10-60 cm of moist or wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit above the thick late-January crust which extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. 

Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.