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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2025–Dec 14th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Sunday's storm is bringing strong winds and periods of rain and snow.

The danger will increase throughout the day as storm slabs build, becoming more reactive.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several size 2-2.5 explosive-triggered slabs occurred in the Duffey area. They were suspected of having stepped down to the mid-November persistent weak layer.

On Tuesday, a deep and large slab (size 2.5-3) was observed on Matier’s East Ridge. (See photo below) This slab was also suspected of having failed on the persistent weak layer.

The incoming storm is expected to increase the likelihood of both natural and human-triggered avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 35 mm of precipitation, combined with strong southerly winds, is forecast to fall by 4 pm Sunday. The snow/rain line elevation is uncertain and will likely fluctuate during the storm. Teeline and below could see rain with wet loose avalanches. In the alpine, we expect to see reactive new storm slabs building as the new snow adds up.

A crust with facets, formed in mid-November, is buried around 50 to 100 cm at alpine and treeline elevations. Storm slabs have the potential to step down to this layer.

Snowpack height averages around 100 to 180 cm at treeline and decreases rapidly below 1500 m.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 25 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Monday
Mostly cloudy. 30 to 50 mm of rain at treeline. 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 cm of snow at treeline. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.



More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.