Avalanche Forecast

Monday night: Mostly clear, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -12 C.

Tuesday: Cloudy, 10-20 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds gusting strong at ridge-tops, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow overnight, moderate northwest winds, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1300 m. 

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light northwest winds, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level 900 m. 

Reports of large (size 2-3) human-triggered and remotely-triggered avalanches releasing on the February 22 surface hoar layer continued throughout the weekend from operators region-wide. This layer continues to surprise people with remote-triggered activity, wide propagation, and a false sense of stability from unreactive ski cuts or from multiple people moving through the terrain before an avalanche releases. Observations have extended to all aspects and elevations, but north to east aspects near treeline have been a hot-spot for reactivity. Avalanches have also occurred at unusually high elevations for surface hoar, with several cases of wind slabs stepping down in the alpine. While the number of reported avalanches has decreased, the size has increased, with more of the activity releasing size 2+.

New snow and wind on Tuesday may build reactive storm slabs and add a new load to cornices. Shallow storm slab avalanches or cornice falls have the potential to step-down to deeper layers and produce very large avalanches. 

A storm moving into the region is expected to bring 10-20 cm of snow with strong southwest winds by Tuesday afternoon. The new snow is not expected to bond well with previous surfaces and may become increasingly touchy as snow accumulates. The new snow will likely develop into a slab sooner on lee features at upper elevations, where southwest winds are transporting the snow into deeper, more cohesive drifts. 

A widespread weak layer of surface hoar is buried 50-90 cm deep. On solar aspects, this layer may sit over a crust. This persistent slab problem is transitioning into a low probability/high consequence scenario. The snow above the weak layer has increased in depth and slab properties, making avalanches more difficult to trigger and masking obvious clues that the problem is present (i.e. cracking, whumpfing). However, if triggered, avalanches will be large and getting caught could have serious consequences. Managing this problem requires a patient and diligent mindset, implemented by avoiding suspect slopes and maintaining conservative terrain margins. This persistent weak layer will likely pose the threat of a low probability/high consequence avalanche until there is a substantial change in the snowpack. Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog.

• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.