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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2022–Feb 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Monitor the condition of surface snow as you travel. When the upper snowpack is mushy and cohesionless with free water, wet loose avalanches will be possible or even likely in steep terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Cloudy with rain, 5-10 mm. Moderate to strong west winds. Freezing level remaining near 2500m.

Wednesday: Cloud clearing over the morning. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels reaching 3200 metres.

Thursday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels to 3200 metres.

Friday: Sunny. Light northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels to 3000 metres.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated numerous small wet loose releases confined to the depth of new snow. Larger wet loose releases may have occurred in areas that hadn't seen rain over the weekend - mainly higher elevations.

Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of surface crust formation. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As surface crusts form and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate rain has wet the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust may occur with clear overnight periods in open areas. Any crust that does form will deteriorate with daytime heating.

Below the surface, 5-20 cm of previously dry snow above the early February crust is now almost certainly moist or wet and the crust itself is likely breaking down. This leaves us with a variable 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and crust sitting on the thick late January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.

The mid and lower snow pack is composed of yet more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks at or just below the surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.