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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2022–Jan 21st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

There is a special avalanche warning in effect for our area. This special warning is in effect immediately, and will apply through to the end of Monday, Jan 24.

Weather Forecast

The trailing edge of a warm front gives cloudy skies and isolated flurries Friday.

Tonight: Cloudy. Alpine low -9*C. Light, gusting strong, Westerly ridgetop winds

Friday: Cloudy. High -6*C. Mod W winds

Saturday: Sunny periods. Low -5*C, High -1*C.  Mod W winds.  Alpine temp inversion.

Sunday: Sunny periods.  Low -10*C, High -1*C, Freezing level 1500m.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow and warm temps has created fresh storm slabs over 2-4mm surface hoar.

There are 2 PWLs in the mid-pack: surface hoar is 50-80cm down at and below treeline,a layer of facets from Xmas is down ~100cm.

The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down ~2-2.5m - this layer came alive last storm, and will be a lingering concern for a long time.

Avalanche Summary

IDA detections indicate that there is an ongoing natural avalanche cycle occurring as of publishing time.

A size 3 deep slab avalanche was triggered by a tree bomb on Abbott Wednesday.

A widespread avalanche cycle occurred on Monday. Size 3-4 avalanches occurred naturally and with artillery control, some with crown lines over 2m deep.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.