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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2022–Dec 23rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Whatshan.

Stormy weather returns, bringing uncertainty with how the weak snowpack will react to warmer air and more snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small natural and rider-triggered wind slab avalanches released on Wednesday, generally on north to east aspects in the alpine.

The latest persistent slab activity occurred December 18. The buried weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary could become touchy again with warmer weather and new snow that is forecast for the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Snow, strong wind, and a warming trend will start to form new wind slabs in lee terrain features in wind-exposed terrain. Around 20 cm of snow overlies a widespread weak layer of surface hoar crystals and a melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.

Two problematic layers exist around 40 and 70 cm deep, consisting of surface hoar, faceted grains, and/or a melt-freeze crust. Avalanches have been most prominent between 1700 and 2200 m on all aspects. Read our forecaster blog for managing a persistent slab problem.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Increasing clouds with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 20 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -22 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -17 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 30 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -8 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.