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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2022–Dec 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Cold temps and strong winds continue! Watch for reactive wind slabs at higher elevations. Small avalanches have the potential to trigger deeper weak layers. Assess conditions as you travel and back off at any signs of instability.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Early season observations are limited! We expect natural and rider triggered wind slab avalanches to occur throughout this region, from available snow and strong winds.

The last reported avalanches were on November 29. Natural storm slabs up to size 2 were suspected to have failed on a buried surface hoar layer that sits 15-30 cm below the surface before 'stepping down' to weak and sugary facets near the base of the snowpack. Check out this MIN report for more details.

We have very few eyes out there. If you do get out please consider reporting in the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Upper Snowpack: Strong southwest winds will have redistributed recent snowfall into fresh wind slabs at upper elevations. This new snow sits above harder, wind-affected snow in exposed terrain features and in sheltered areas above more faceted (sugary, weak) snow which may not bond well.

Lower Snowpack: Cold temperatures have weakened and faceted the snowpack. A rain crust sits near the ground.

Total snowpack depths at treeline elevations are 50-80 cm and in the alpine 70-140 cm. In many areas, below treeline elevations remain below the threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Partly cloudy skies overnight with a chance of trace amounts of snowfall. Winds remain strong from the southwest.

Saturday

Mostly clear skies. Winds remain strong from the southwest, becoming extreme near the Crownest Pass and in eastern terrain. Wind speeds drop significantly over the evening. -10 alpine high.

Sunday

Clearing skies with light easterly winds. Alpine high of -10. Possibility of late day flurries.

Monday

Cloud increases overnight with light snowfall expected over the day. Strong westerly winds return. Alpine high -10.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.