Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Nov 27 – 28, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A juicy storm is expected tonight and most of Sunday increasing avalanche danger. Because of the thin, soft, early season snowpack the best riding will also be where avalanches are most likely. Avoid overhead hazards, keep slope angles moderate, and stick to places sheltered from the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    It's possible avalanches can scrub down into the faceted lower snowpack. This suggests the possibility of wider and larger events than normally expected.

    Thin early season snow depths mean you'll be searching for deeper areas to ride; that'll take you to where avalanches are most likely. Selecting moderate (less steep) slopes will help manage both early season hazards (like knee and A-arm wrecking rocks) and avalanche hazards. Less windy areas will be the sweet spot for both best riding quality and avoiding avalanche issues.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

One size 2 natural from the Lizard Range during Friday's storm was up to 40 cm deep, 150m wide and ran 300m. I suspect this is representative of more to come: I'm expecting natural avalanches will release during the storm.

Ponder this: by Sunday night the snowpack may have received 60mm of water equivalency. That pretty much doubles the snowpack. Adding 50% or more load to a young, thin snowpack is significant. I'm thinking it's possible something might scrub down into the lower snowpack or even to ground.

Snowpack Summary

Upper snowpack: consists of the 15 to 30 cm of snow over the past week. At the bottom of this recent snow is a layer of surface hoar.

Lower Snowpack: sugary faceted snow and with a rain crust just above the ground.

Snowpack depths at treeline are 45 to 75 cm, and in the alpine 65 to 125 cm.

Weather Summary

Saturday NightIt's going to be a dark and stormy night. Precipitation: 15 - 20 cm Wind: southwest moderate to strong Temperature: cooling around -10 C.

SundayStorm winding down late in the day. Precipitation: 10 to 15cm. Wind: moderate southwest, veering and diminishing as the system winds down. Temperatures: -10 C and falling to -15 C as the storm moves out.

Monday

Dry, mix of sun or cloud, depending where you are in the region, light west wind, and temperatures around -15 C.

Tuesday

Similar to Monday only colder. Temperatures around -20 in the mountains.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Regions covered