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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 7th, 2022–Apr 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies.

The weather pattern right now is fast-changing, and we're unsure about how the snowpack will react. During times of uncertainty, lean on a conservative approach to terrain, and continually make observations as you travel. 

The northern tip of the region may see more rain/snow 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday Night: Mixed precipitation rain/ snow up to 25 mm in Pine Pass and 5-10 mm in the South. Freezing levels 2500 m and dropping to 1500 m by 4 am Friday. Ridgetop winds light to moderate from the southwest.

Friday: Cloudy. New snow 5 cm and moderate ridgetop wind from the southwest. Freezing levels are forecast to drop to 1200 m. 

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods. New snow 5 to 10 cm and freezing levels 1000 m. Alpine temperatures are near -10 C and ridgetop winds light to moderate from the northwest. 

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing level near 700 m and alpine temperatures -15 C. Ridgetop winds light from the West.

Avalanche Summary

No reports since last weekend. 

Warm temperatures, rain and snow may trigger a natural avalanche cycle on Friday.

On Sunday, a small natural wind slab avalanche was observed on a north aspect in the alpine. A rider triggered a small slab avalanche on the same slope. Both avalanches likely occurred on Saturday.

On Saturday, many natural dry loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain, as well as a large cornice failure that released a slab on the slope below. 

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow may exist up to 1900 m on most aspects and to ridgetop on solar slopes. This may extend to higher elevations by Friday morning.

25 to 50 cm of new storm snow blankets upper elevations with the greater snowfall amounts being in the Renshaw. Light to moderate wind has redistributed the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs and large cornices. The upper 60 cm of the snowpack consists of multiple crusts. 

50-70 cm of snow sits on the thick melt-freeze crust from late March. There has been no recent avalanche activity reported on this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a buried crust.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.