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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2024–Mar 15th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Glacier.

The strong spring sunshine and rapidly warming temperatures will increase the the avalanche danger throughout the day. Natural avalanches are likely and these have the potential to step down to the Feb 3rd crust/facet combo.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A field team in the Bonney area Wednesday observed several loose snow avalanches up to size 2.5, from the steep solar slopes of Ross Peak and Mt. Green.

Early this week, wind spikes triggered numerous avalanches up to sz 3.

On Monday, just north of the park, a group of skiers remotely triggered a size 3 on the Feb 3 crust.

Last Thursday, we observed multiple naturally-triggered size 3 slab avalanches, likely failing on the Feb 3rd crust.

Snowpack Summary

A surface crust caps 30-40cm of recent storm snow that has been transported by strong Southwest winds. This new snow rests on a variety old surfaces, most importantly a thin sun crust on South & West aspects.

80-140cm of settled snow sits atop a sugary facet layer. These facets are not bonding well to the widespread, very firm crust from Feb 3rd. This crust is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a layer of concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

Today marks the beginning of a warm up across the interior with freezing levels forecasted to 3300m.

Tonight: Alpine low -5°C. Freezing level (FZL) 1400m. Light W ridgetop winds.

Fri: Mainly cloudy. Alpine high 3°C, FZL 2900m. Light W winds.

Sat: Sun/cloud. Low 3°C, High 7°C. Light S winds. FZL 3300m

Sun: Sun/cloud. Low 3°C, High 7°C. FZL 3300m. SW winds 10-20km/hr.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Avoid exposure to steep sun exposed slopes.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.