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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2024–Feb 28th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Verify the forecast with your local conditions. As snow accumulates on Wednesday, both natural and human-triggered avalanches may become likely.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and explosive-triggered avalanches, up to size 2, failing on the buried crust/facet combination occurred throughout the region on Monday.

A fatal avalanche incident occurred on Saturday near Gardiner Creek. It is believed that the same layer of facets on a crust was the failure layer. You can read more details here.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 30 to 50 cm of recent snowfall has buried a variety of potential weak layers, including sun crusts on south-facing slopes and faceted snow or surface hoar in north-facing terrain.

A widespread crust formed in early February is buried by 50 to 100 cm. In some areas, weak faceted grains have formed above and/or below the crust.

The remaining snowpack is generally well-settled, with no current concerns.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy with 0 to 3 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10 to 30 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Friday

Friday with 2 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.