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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2020–Jan 18th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A subtle inversion has kept the Spray relatively warm the past few days. This pattern will last for atleast another day, making for good skiing at treeline elevations. As the warming trend continues, expect the snowpack to "relax" and possibly become more likely to avalanche.

Confidence

No Rating -

Weather Forecast

Overnight low of -18 on the Spray Road with a day time high of -10. This has been the pattern the last few days, so there is some confidence it will be true. A few flurries are also expected, but not much accumulation. Winds will be 30-50km/hr from the SW, with a slight increase mid afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Only minor sluffing out of steep terrain today.

Snowpack Summary

The snow continues to grow with the intermittent flurries this week. Treeline has about 130-150cm. The Dec 31 SH/FC layer is down about 50cm (at treeline) and so far not a huge problem. Having said that, as the surface snow becomes more dense it may become a problem. The mid pack is generally strong despite the cold temps. As for the bottom layers, they are still loose and "sugary". While mostly shielded by the upper layers, these deep layers could fail with a large load, or impact in thin area.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the possibility for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.