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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2021–Jan 30th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Kananaskis.

We've received a welcome storm that has left 30-50cm of new snow. This snow is warm and able to quickly form touchy slabs. Watch winds and sun exposure carefully.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Tomorrow will see broken skies with flurries rolling through for most of the day. Its hard to nail down the accumulation with "flurries", but if it is like today was, they may add up to another 10cm. Temperatures will warm up as the day goes on with a high of about -6 expected. The winds will be the thing to watch. They are expected to increase during the day with speeds ranging from 20km/hr to 40 at ridgeline. Consistently from the SW. It feels like a spring pattern right now with convective cells rolling through. These are notoriously difficult to forecast snow amounts for. We'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

Avalanche Summary

Lots of loose dry avalanches today. Mostly out of cliff terrain and up to sz1.5. While not witnessed, we do expect steep gullies had a sluffing cycle.

Snowpack Summary

Well, it seems our weather man was suffering from dyscalculia yesterday. We were expecting 15cm, but got up to 51cm on Thursday night. This sits on a variety of old surfaces that will be slow to bond with the new snow. The most interesting (and nerve racking) thing about this new snow is how easily it wants to settle and bond with itself. Within an hour we saw it shift from loose dry avalanches to a more cohesive, almost slab character. It will take VERY little input for this to become a slab problem. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.