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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2021–Jan 2nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Conditions are starting to change! Fresh windslabs were building on Friday and with the forecasted storm this weekend we can expect avalanche danger to increase due to new snow and winds. 

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

5cm of new snow is forecast overnight with strong winds and warming temperatures. Then later on Saturday the main body of the front starts to move in giving us 20-30cm of new snow with continues strong winds out of the SW. This will likely trigger an avalanche with the arrival of the main front so pay close attention to timing of the new snow. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Friday but conditions were obscured for the better part of the day. 

Snowpack Summary

Winds on Friday were increasing and as s result we were seeing more pronounced windslabs development in the region especially in the alpine and into treeline. Our Snowpack mainly consist of generations of windslabs overlying a relatively strong mid pack with the Basal November rain crust at the lower elevations. For december it has been a fairly stable snowpack with the windslabs in the upper snowpack as the primary concern but that is all likely to change with the incoming storm. As we did pre Christmas, we are expecting to see avalanches in the upper snowpack and the possibility of the basal facets and November crust becoming overloaded and failing triggering large avalanches. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.