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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2021–Mar 31st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Rising temperatures coupled with spring sun can pack a punch and quickly initiate natural avalanche activity and weaken cornices. Be ready to back off slopes as the surface becomes moist. Moderate wind could help keep things cool, but could also be building new wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Scattered flurries. Light to moderate northwest wind. Freezing level 500 m. Alpine temperature -9.

Wednesday: Sunny. Light to moderate gusty southwest wind. Freezing level 1900 m. Alpine temperature -2.

Thursday: Flurries up to 5 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1700 m. Alpine temperature -5.

Friday: Flurries up to 10 cm. Light to moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1500 m. Alpine temperature -7.

Avalanche Summary

A natural storm slab avalanche cycle was observed to have run during the storm, widespread size 3-3.5 in the Selkirks and to a more limited extent in the Monashees to size 2, a few of them cornice-triggered. Storm slabs remained reactive to ski cuts on Monday, mostly around size 1 with a couple of skier remotes size 1-2 in the east of the region. By Tuesday, storm slabs were showing signs of becoming more stubborn, showing limited propagation with a few explosive control results around size 2. A skier triggered size 2.5 involvement in neighboring Glacier National Park resulted in lost gear and minor injuries.

Notable reports of avalanche activity prior to the storm include:

  • A size 3 slab avalanche was observed northeast of Revelstoke on Wednesday. The avalanche failed on the ground on a south aspect at 1600 m. 
  • In neighboring Glacier National Park and South Columbia regions, several natural cornice falls triggered deep slab avalanches size 2-3.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent snow in the Selkirk mountains and 5-10 cm elsewhere has seen some redistribution by southwest to northwest wind, and seems to be bonding well with underlying surfaces. Dry snow that sees direct sun or experiences above freezing temperatures for the first time Wednesday may become reactive as it settles rapidly. Crusty surfaces below treeline will become moist with rising freezing levels.

At alpine and treeline elevations, a widespread crust exists (except on north-facing slopes above 1800 m) buried 50-100 cm deep. Overall the snow seems to be bonding well at this interface, although there have been a few isolated avalanches running on crust layers over the past few week.

Terrain and Travel

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.