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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 25th, 2025–Mar 26th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Rising temperatures and strong sun are creating very dangerous avalanche conditions.

Avoid avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous natural and artificially triggered wet loose and wind slab avalanches were observed to size 2.

Large natural persistent slab avalanches have run on buried weak layers in recent days. A size 2.5 was observed near Castle on Monday and several can be seen in this MIN from Mear Lake on Saturday.

Looking forward, we can expect to see an uptick of persistent slab avalanche activity as balmy temperatures continue to weaken the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Surfaces are becoming moist to wet on all aspects as freezing levels climb up above the highest peaks.

Where still intact, a melt-freeze crust is found 20 to 40 cm deep, except on high-elevation north and east-facing slopes.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 70 to 120 cm deep. It is most likely to be triggered on steep, rocky, convex slopes on northerly and easterly aspects at treeline and above.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Clearing skies. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +3 °C. Freezing level rising to 2700 m.

Wednesday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +7 °C. Freezing level rising to 3000 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing level falling to 2400 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. 10 to 20 km/h east ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 to 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain; avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.