Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2025–Mar 2nd, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Sunday will continue to be warm and spring-like. The snowpack is already stressed by rising temperatures, recent wind loading, and solar input. Be patient for temperatures to cool off.

Avoid sun-exposed slopes, watch for overhead hazards, and make conservative choices.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Today’s warmer weather brought more avalanche activity. Highway 93N patrol observed several size 2-2.5 persistent slabs, triggered by cornice failures or smaller loose avalanches, proving how smaller loads can activate this weak layer. Our neighbours are still reporting natural size 2-3 persistent slab activity.

Continued warmth and potential rain or snow ahead will further destabilize the snowpack. Avalanche conditions remain serious, even if not obvious.

Snowpack Summary

Freezing levels rose to just below 3000m Saturday, creating moist surface snow. Expect crust formation, especially on solar aspects, with the overnight refreeze.

Moderate to strong winds have redistributed last week’s snow, which continues to load leeward features while stripping alpine and exposed treeline areas.

The top 10-30cm sits over weak February facets atop old wind slabs, crusts, or depth hoar. Below 1600m, warmth has saturated the weak snowpack.

Weather Summary

Expect to still see spring-like weather on Sunday with lots of sun and freezing levels rising above 2200m. The SW winds continue within the 20-40 km/h range at ridgetop.

We will begin to see a small dip in temperatures with the potential for a little more snow or rain in the forecast Sunday evening into Monday daytime.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.