Avalanche forecast

Northwest Coastal

Mar 28 – 29, 2017Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 10 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

A sleeping dragon lies deep in the snowpack: The persistent slab problem hasn't changed and isn't improving. Conservative terrain use is essential & avoid overhead hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–4
    A weak facet/crust layer from late February has produced several large human triggered avalanches the past few days. Triggering this layer is most likely in shallower areas, but a small wind slab or cornice fall could act as a natural trigger.
  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    New snow may overload wind slabs sitting on the March 22nd surface hoar layer. Conservative terrain use is essential and manage your overhead exposure.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We'll have lingering flurries in the wake of the snow from Monday-Tuesday. The next significant weather arrives Friday. WEDNESDAY: Lingering flurries (5-10 cm possible) light southwest wind, freezing levels 1100m, alpine temperature around -4 C. THURSDAY: A short-lived clearing during the day. Light-moderate south wind, freezing level around 1100 m with alpine temperature around -3 C. FRIDAY: Snow in the afternoon (10-15cm), moderate southwest wind, freezing levels 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, we had reports of loose wet avalanches below treeline, in response to warming temperatures. A natural glide avalanche was observed on a south aspect near Stewart. On Sunday, a machine-triggered Size 3 (with crown approximately 2m thick) was reported in the South Douglas area just north of Terrace on a northwest aspect near 1400m. The slab is suspected to have run on the late February interface and involves an incredible story of survival. Click here for details.On Friday, a spooky Size 3.5 persistent slab with impressive propagation was remote-triggered north of Terrace at 1500m elevation. See here for more details in this excellent post.A significant concern remains the potential for persistent slab avalanches triggered by people. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing avalanches that are not likely, but if they are triggered, are probably unsurvivable. See (here), and the accompanying travel advice for valley bottom (here).

Snowpack Summary

We've seen light snowfall and steady light to moderate winds over the past several days. Weekend totals brought 10-20cm of new snow and moderate southwest / southeast winds. Consequently, storm slabs (up to 40cm thick) developed at treeline and above. Cornices have also grown larger with the steady winds and regular, small amounts of snow. Seasonal spring temperatures mean the snow has been moist below ~1200m.Snow may still be poorly bonded to a 40 cm deep crust and surface hoar interface from mid-March; however, the late-February interface has been the more troublesome persistent layer. It's composed of facets, crust, and surface hoar roughly 70-140 cm deep and is still reactive throughout the region, especially in shallower areas around Stewart and Bear Pass. See the Avalanche Summary above for surprising examples of this persistent problem re-awakening.

Regions covered