Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Dec 17 – 18, 2016Alberta Parks
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

As winds begin to increase will likely likely see an increase in loose dry avalanches and stiffening wind slabs.  We are on the cusp of a change.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Cold temps are breaking these down, the exception is in wind prone areas. Watch for a lingering hard slab as you approach wind features.  It is possible that these may step down to the 1112 crust down 50cm so be sure to pull out that shovel and dig. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1
    Loose dry avalanches can easily run far and fast over an ice climb so be mindful of overhead terrain before you commit. Winds increasing over the next 24hrs will likely trigger these avalanches in steeper terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Tomorrow we will see the blue sky begin to be pushed out slightly and more SW flow returning to the region.  Winds will increase with the arrival of the warmer temperatures (-16c) and beginning late on Sunday night we can expect to see some precipitation FINALLY fall here again.  Forecast amounts differ but roughly 10cm of snow should be expected based on the weather models on saturday eve.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few loose dry slides up to sz 1 were observed on Saturday out of steep unskiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Expect to encounter windslabs in open terrain in the alpine and at treeline and some un-distrubed snow in more sheltered areas. The 1112cr is down 50-70cm and producing variable results often within a few meters so be sure to evaluate this layer. The cold temps have certainly taken their toll on lower snowpack areas and they are weak and facetted.

Regions covered