As winds begin to increase will likely likely see an increase in loose dry avalanches and stiffening wind slabs. We are on the cusp of a change.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Tomorrow we will see the blue sky begin to be pushed out slightly and more SW flow returning to the region. Winds will increase with the arrival of the warmer temperatures (-16c) and beginning late on Sunday night we can expect to see some precipitation FINALLY fall here again. Forecast amounts differ but roughly 10cm of snow should be expected based on the weather models on saturday eve.
Avalanche Summary
Only a few loose dry slides up to sz 1 were observed on Saturday out of steep unskiable terrain.
Snowpack Summary
Expect to encounter windslabs in open terrain in the alpine and at treeline and some un-distrubed snow in more sheltered areas. The 1112cr is down 50-70cm and producing variable results often within a few meters so be sure to evaluate this layer. The cold temps have certainly taken their toll on lower snowpack areas and they are weak and facetted.
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.