Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2015–Feb 16th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Stevens Pass.

The main problem to watch for west of the crest on Monday should be possible loose wet avalanches.

Detailed Forecast

An amplifying upper ridge over the US and BC coastal waters will dominate the weather the next few days. This will cause sunny, warm weather in the Olympics and Cascades Monday and early next week.

The main problem to watch for west of the crest on Monday should be possible loose wet avalanches. Watch for initial rollerballs or surface wet snow deeper than few inches. While this is expected mainly on solar slopes midday watch for it on other aspects as well. Overnight cooling and surface refreezing will limit this problem on non-solar slopes and during the night and morning hours.

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

Warm and wet southwest flow directed a series of fronts across the Northwest from about February 5th-10th. This caused about 5-14 inches of water west of the crest falling mostly as rain with the most at Mt Baker. This led to more melt at lower elevations, making many slopes below treeline nearly snow free, regardless of aspect.   

But about 5-12 inches of heavy snow accumulated  near and above treeline at the tail end of the storms based on weather station data and reports.

A little rain and then warmer temperatures has been seen the past few days and today. Due to the ongoing warm weather the last snow will probably not be distinguishable from earlier snow on many slopes.

NWAC pro-observers west of the crest indicate some small loose wet avalanches early last week. A report via the NWAC Observations page for Tuesday from Paradise also indicated some loose wet avalanches but pit tests gave mostly hard or no results.

Less avalanches were reported later in the week. Pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise Saturday and Sunday and  reported only some rollerballs and a couple small loose wet avalanches. Jeff Hambelton today found firm snow and no instability near Mt Baker.

The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.