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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2015–Jan 24th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Loose wet avalanches and possible wet slab avalanches in the above tree line should be the main avalanche problems on Saturday.

Detailed Forecast

The ridge will slightly amplify and gradually shove the incoming warm front moisture north to BC on Saturday. So rain will initially decrease in the south Cascades Saturday morning and then in the Olympics and north Cascades Saturday afternoon and night with high snow levels and very mild temperatures.

Loose wet avalanches should still be likely mainly in the above tree line where there is significant snow coverage on Saturday. Avoid steep slopes if you are in significant rain and start to see wet snow deeper than a few inches or increasing natural pinwheels or rollerballs.

The possibility of wet slab avalanches on Saturday should be just in the above treeline where there is significant snow coverage while there is still significant rain Saturday morning.

The avalanche danger should be lower by later Saturday but it is difficult to say how much due to the rapidly changing conditions.

Snowpack Discussion

Snow on the back end of the last storm Sunday and Monday was about 7 inches at Hurricane.

NWAC pro-observer Katy Reid was at Hurricane on Sunday. She mainly reported poor coverage and shallow new snow well bonded to previous melt form snow. She also reported stable melt form layers in the mid and base pack where it existed. Here is her video from Sunday on our YouTube Channel.

Warm front moisture from the sub tropics will move over an upper ridge and mainly over the Olympics and Washington Cascades through Friday night. This will bring rain and greatly rising snow levels Friday and Friday night. This will give the snowpack a good test in most areas and we should find out if there much of an avalanche cycle from reports on Saturday.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.