Avalanche Forecast

Tuesday should be partly to mostly sunny. Recent storm snow settlement will be slow with continued cold temperatures. 

Expect a higher regional likelihood of finding sensitive wind slab on N-SE aspects near the Cascade crest Tuesday. Approach wind-loaded slopes with caution and practice conservative decision making especially when pushing into the near/above treeline band.

In the Washington Pass area, storm slabs releasing down a the Jan 5th crust/facet interface deserves your attention. Watch for cracking and collapsing while traveling as obvious instability clues and generally be conservative near avalanche terrain. There's plenty of good skiing to be found on lower angled slopes even in the alpine.   

Sunshine may activate loose avalanches predominately on steeper southerly slopes with enough snow but this will not be listed as a top avalanche concern. 

As a general backcountry travel safety note, tread carefully at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects where terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) are present. 

Strong southwest flow carried a wet front across the Cascades Saturday night. This front tapped subtropical moisture but cold air trapped on the east side kept 48 hr water amounts through Mon AM of half an inch to 2 inches mainly in the form of snow. Snow was most significant in the northeast and central east Cascades with about 12-24 inches at Holden and in the Washington Pass area again through Mon morning. The warming trend seen late Sat night through Sunday led to an upside down layering. 

Several reports have been received over the past couple days along the east slopes:

The North Cascade Mountain Guides in the Washington Pass Saturday reported about 10-20 cm of snow from the previous storm but no significant slabs. However, by Monday, the additional storm snow had formed a slab and collapsing was observed on a facet/crust combo down 70 cm on the Jan 5th crust. This layer was reactive in snowpit tests with propagation and one sizeable avalanche in the Cutthroat Drainage may have released down to this layer. 

NWAC observer Tom Curtis was north of Blewett Pass on Thursday and found widespread 5mm+ surface hoar up to 5400 feet. This layer may not have survived through the weekend. The non-reactive persistent facet layer found on Jove Peak on Wednesday was also found in this area down 85 cm Thursday.

An avalanche class near Mission Ridge on Saturday reported via the NWAC Observations that facets between crust layers in the mid pack gave a Q1 shear but did not show a tendency to propagate via an ECT. The Mission Ridge ski patrol Sunday reported a surface rain crust with no natural or ski cut avalanches.

The south-east Cascades and central-east Cascades away from the crest will likely have a lower avalanche danger.   

The overall snowpack remains well below normal for this time of year and some windward or southerly aspects have little if any snow cover.