Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2015–Jan 7th, 2015

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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Areas of wet snow are expected, especially on steeper southerly facing slopes exposed to direct sunshine.

Detailed Forecast

Drying, clearing and very warm temperatures with freezing levels above 10,000 feet are expected Tuesday. This should allow for the recent rain soaked upper snow layers to drain free water and begin to consolidate.

Snowpack Discussion

From 3 to over 7 inches of rain have fallen over the Cascade west slopes from Sunday night to Monday evening, following about 5-15 inches of snowfall prior to the change to rain. The heavy snowfall at Mt Baker, where temperatures remained cooler Sunday night and where significant new snow was received, produced widespread natural avalanches along Shuksan Arm as seen and reported by ski area patrol Monday, with consistent crown depths of about 2 feet. NWAC observer, Jeff Hambleton, scouting the event on Tuesday, found evidence of widespread wet snow avalanches, both loose and slab in the Baker area.

Few other observations have been received since the major warming and rain event.

The rain and warming should have released any recent snow received prior to the substantial warming arrived Sunday night. The rain has reached the elevations of the Cascade crest and this essentially resets the snowpack, leaving behind wet or saturated upper snow layers.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.